Revell 04736 Space Shuttle Discovery & Booster Rockets 1:144 Scale Unbuilt/Unpainted Plastic Model Kit, Multi-color, 59.5 x 36.4 x 6.5 centimetres

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The early studies were denoted "Phase A", and in June 1970, "Phase B", which were more detailed and specific.

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The NASA selection group thought that Lockheed's shuttle was too complex and too expensive, and the company had no experience with building crewed spacecraft. The probabilities originated in a series of quantitative risk assessments NASA was required to conduct by the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP), in anticipation of the launch of the Galileo spacecraft on its voyage to Jupiter, originally scheduled for the early 1980s. On one procedural flow chart, the report noted, “the ‘Hazard Analysis As Required ’ is a dead-end box with inputs but no output with respect to waiver approval decisions. NASA examined four solutions to this problem: development of the existing Saturn lower stage, simple pressure-fed liquid-fuel engines of a new design, a large single solid rocket, or two (or more) smaller ones. The Wiggins author noted that the history of other solid-fuel rockets showed them as undergoing catastrophic launches somewhere between 1 time in 59 and 1 time in 34, but that the study’s contract overseers, the Space Shuttle Range Safety Ad Hoc Committee, made an “engineering judgment” and “decided that a reduction in the failure probability estimate was warranted for the Space Shuttle SRBs” because “the historical data includes motors developed 10 to 20 years ago.SLC-6 was eventually used for launching the Lockheed Martin-built Athena expendable launch vehicles, which included the successful IKONOS commercial Earth observation satellite in September 1999 before being reconfigured once again to handle the new generation of Boeing Delta IV's.

Space Shuttle design process - Wikipedia Space Shuttle design process - Wikipedia

In space and aviation systems, the cost is closely related to mass, so this meant the overall vehicle cost would be very high.However, further studies showed a huge booster was needed to lift an orbiter with the desired payload capability. The primary intended use of the Space Shuttle was supporting the future space station, ferrying a minimum crew of four and about 20,000 pounds (9,100kg) of cargo, and being able to be rapidly turned around for future flights. At the start of the space shuttle’s design, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration defined risk as “the chance (qualitative) of loss of personnel capability, toss of system, or damage to or loss of equipment or property. The program’s goals are to establish a policy on risk management and to conduct risk assessments independent of normal engineering analyses. This program mainly consisted of the construction of a space station, along with the development of a Space Shuttle.

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IEEE Spectrum is the flagship publication of the IEEE — the world’s largest professional organization devoted to engineering and applied sciences.In lieu of using probability numbers, the NSTS [National Space Transportation System] relies on engineering judgment using rigid and well-documented design, configuration, safety, reliability, and quality assurance controls,” the Johnson authors continued.

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In the spring of 1972 Lockheed Aircraft, McDonnell Douglas, Grumman, and North American Rockwell submitted proposals to build the shuttle. A not-for-profit organization, IEEE is the world's largest technical professional organization dedicated to advancing technology for the benefit of humanity. Despite the potential benefits for the Air Force, the military was satisfied with its expendable boosters and did not need or want the shuttle as much as NASA did.In addition, Rodney noted, “For everyone in NASA that’s a big PRA [probabilistic risk assessment] seller, I can find you 10 that are equally convinced that PRA is oversold… [They] are so dubious of its importance that they won ’t convince themselves that the end product is worthwhile. There were a number of studies because the upper stage for boosting Galileo into interplanetary space was reconfigured several times. NASA conducted its own internal safety analysis for Galileo, which was published in 1985 by the Johnson Space Center.